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The strongest heatwave for 2016/17 is about to sweep South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland bringing extremely hot conditions with increased bushfire and heat stress risks. Above image – Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Saturday, February 11th.

Over the next 4 to 5 days, a low pressure trough is forecast to move slowly though South Australia and VIC before drifting North through New South Wales and Queensland. This trough is forecast to combine with a ridiculously hot airmass overhead and dry in very dry and hot conditions ahead of it to produce widespread severe to extreme heatwave conditions.

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

BOM Heatwave Pilot for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

 

5 capital cities are forecast to be in the firing line with the following temperatures over the next 4 to 5 days.
• Adelaide 41 / 41 / 39 / 37
• 
Melbourne 34 / 37 / 27 / 28
• Canberra 26 / 35 / 40 / 41 / 35
• Sydney 26 / 29 / 35 / 39 / 36
• Brisbane 31 / 31 / 32 / 35 / 37

While most people will be feeling the above temperatures given the population density in cities. Spare a though for those in Western NSW, Eastern SA, North-West VIC and Southern/South-West QLD. Maximums, which for an extensive period of time have been in the mid 40’s, are about to get even hotter. Here are some of the following temps.

• Mildura (VIC) 40 / 44 / 44 / 42
• Moomba (SA) 46 / 46 / 45 / 46
• Birdsville (QLD) 46 / 46 / 45 / 45
• Port Augusta (SA) 45 / 45 / 44 / 45
• St George (QLD) 39 / 39 / 40 / 43 / 45
• Ivanhoe (NSW) 42 / 43 / 45 / 47
• Wilcannia (NSW) 45 / 44 / 46 / 47
• Penrith (NSW) 27 / 34 / 43 / 43 / 40

Some locations are expected to at least challenge February records, some of these could be long standing. The addition of Summer records is also possible given many locations in NSW are closing in on records for the number of days above 35ºc and 40ºc. The heat is forecast to continue over Northern NSW and Southern QLD beyond these 5 days, however there will be a seperate blog for that.

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Wednesday, February 8th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Wednesday, February 8th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Thursday, February 9th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Thursday, February 9th

There is a heightened bushfire risk, the temperatures alone over such a large area pose a significant risk, however these temperatures are occurring over extensively dry regions and should occur with very low humidity. Total fire bans are expected and should be respected. 

This is also another reminder that with upwards of 15 million people being impacted by this heat, avoid strenuous activity during the day.. the body will struggle to breath with increased sweat and lead to an increased risk of heatstroke. Drink plenty of water, dehydration is a major factor in heatstroke and heat related illness. Look after young children, the elderly, pregnant woman, those who are currently sick as well as pets and animals – all of these have an increased risk of heat stress. 

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Friday, February 10th

Forecast Maximums via OCF/BSCH for Friday, February 10th

 

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